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Voters in bellwether seat Dartford reveal how they will vote in next general election

15:16, 20 July 2023

updated: 14:59, 04 October 2023

For almost 60 years it's been the place that predicts which party will win general elections and take power. So this week, as people went to the polls in three parliamentary by-elections, we sent our reporters to Dartford to speak to locals.

We wanted to know about how they intend to vote next time and the issues they care about most. We also showed some of them photos of Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and MP Gareth Johnson to see who they recognised.

Voters are expected to go to the polls next year
Voters are expected to go to the polls next year

When he won the constituency for Labour in October 1964, it’s doubtful MP Sydney Irving would have had an inkling of the trend he was setting.

But since that historic election, which saw Harold Wilson become Prime Minister, Dartford has voted for the winning party in every single election.

This makes it the longest-running “bellwether” seat in the country – 16 times in a row the nation has followed its lead.

There is an argument no-one won outright in 2010, but the Conservatives were the biggest party and led the coalition with the Lib Dems.

Current MP Gareth Johnson was first elected in that election and has gone on to retain the seat three times.

Dartford election results since 1964
Dartford election results since 1964

However, with the national polls showing a likely Labour majority and the public mood increasingly anti-government, what are the chances the Tory makes it five in a row?

Our reporters spent a day in and around the town centre quizzing people on where they stood.

And the results – if repeated on a constituency scale – could spell problems for both major parties as it seems the Tories are in real trouble but Labour is yet to “seal the deal” with voters.

Shopper Julie Gibbons was unsure who she will vote for, but was adamant it will not be the Conservatives.

She said: "They have just been making a mess of things. I have voted for them in the past but the state of the country is an absolute mess.

Richard Horley was unimpressed with the state of the country
Richard Horley was unimpressed with the state of the country

"It is just everything, it is all a mess. It is a total mess. But I do not think Labour is ready. I do not think they are. I do not like Kier Starmer."

In terms of how Dartford is faring, she added: "Crime has got worse with all the stabbings."

Richard Horley, 40, also won’t be voting Tory, but remains unsure about Labour.

"I have not voted Conservative my entire adult life,” he said. “They are untrustworthy. I cannot say Labour will be a lot better.

"It is not just about Party Gate, it is about the waste of money – the PPE issues when we really needed it.

Dartford resident Anthony Carter
Dartford resident Anthony Carter

“It [fast supply] was blocked so it would benefit people who had no experience in that industry and were paid the money [to produce PPE]. It is ridiculous, you cannot run a country like that.

“But Labour does not have a convincing cabinet. They do not really have a cabinet where people will recognise them. People would not recognise them on the street.

"Who are they? They are there but people do not know them."

On the town, he added: "People here, you will see them every day, there is a reasonable footfall in the town but people do not know where they are going, they are coming in and just wandering.

"There is nothing here for children. Where are the panic rooms, the education centres? There are all these plans but nothing is happening. It could be thriving."

Dartford voter Illya Prior
Dartford voter Illya Prior

When shown the photos, he recognised Mr Starmer and Mr Sunak but not Mr Johnson.

Mary Amos, 71, said: “I’ve voted Labour my whole life and will continue to do so. The current government has shown they’re not fit to be in charge and I think others will realise that as well. I think Dartford has a good chance of switching MPs and getting the outcome right again.”

Another Labour voter was Fleet Estate resident Lola who will be sticking with the party: "I have written to [Gareth Johnson] on several issues but you get the same reply about how great they are. I really do not respect him.

"Violence is on the rise. There are people using guns. There sounds like there are gangs. What has happened to youth clubs? What is there here for younger people? Also, I am really upset about Brexit. I think that has not done us any favours."

Although KentOnline found people who said they were intending to vote Conservative, none of them would go on the record to explain why.

Bruce Galibardy recognised all three politicians in the photos
Bruce Galibardy recognised all three politicians in the photos

This can’t be said of the number of people who have no intention of taking part.

Anthony Carter, 69, is not voting, saying: "They are not interested in working-class people. They are just for themselves. I think they have lost touch.

“I believe they are all out of touch. I would not vote for any of them right now. I think they are all talk.

"It is time to shake it up in this country. You need someone that can change something. They need to sort it out.”

Talking about the town: "People are struggling. It is the worst it has been for years. Everyone is trying to keep themselves afloat and to keep paying their bills.

Dartford MP Gareth Johnson
Dartford MP Gareth Johnson

"The bills are getting higher and higher. Council tax is going up. The cost of living.

"It is not getting any better in Dartford. It is not the town it used to be. The crime levels are quite concerning. You should be able to walk around in peace. It is not the case anymore."

From the photos, he recognised the two party leaders but not Mr Johnson.

Illya Prior, 73, is somebody else who doesn’t intend to vote, saying: "I do not care. I think the best Prime Minster we have had was Labour’s James Callaghan [1976-79]."

Talking about the issues affecting her and the town: "There are a lot of problems. For old age pensioners, they could put the pension up. There are a lot of old dears, they have not got a lot because of the bills.

“They need to pay for food and so are not paying their bills and getting cut off." She didn't recognise anyone in the pictures.

Bruce Galibardy, 72, also won’t vote, saying: "The prices. The price of fuel, gas and food.

"The building of more and more flats. I am sick and tired of it. I think most people in Dartford are. They are not building any more schools or hospitals or roads to go with them.

"The tunnel and the M25 are problems too.” "Nobody knows what [Mr Johnson] does."

He was the only person to recognise all three photos.

Town resident Steve Reeve, 37, is angry with the state of things, but doesn't intend to head to the polls.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer
PM Rishi Sunak
PM Rishi Sunak

He said: “I’m not voting for anyone. Why should I? It’s been a shambles. Everything has gone up and up and none of these lot [politicians] care about us. Whoever is in power won’t do Dartford any good.”

At the younger end of the spectrum, 22-year-old James Fuller wasn’t keen on any of the parties, stating: “**** the lot. I don’t care about any of them and they don’t care about me.”

Of the 28 people who spoke to our reporters, only four said they would vote Conservative, 11 said it would be Labour but the ‘winner’ was the not sures/won’t votes on 13.

KentOnline wouldn't pretend this sample is anywhere near as scientific as what a professional polling company would produce, but it does offer an interesting snapshot of a nationally important constituency at a point in time.

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