In this exclusive article, Professor Richard Scase, emeritus

Professor at the University of Kent and internationally renowned business forecaster, is pessimistic about the prospects for Kent and the world in 2012.

Predictions for 2012 suggest that the average rate of growth for the OECD economies will be around one per cent.

All the signs suggest Europe and the United States are moving towards a second (double dip) recession.

The United Kingdom could be part of this with pundits now suggesting that growth could be no more than 0.5 per cent; a figure that falls within a statistical margin of error that may conceal an actual decline in national GDP.

For the UK, and particularly regions outside the “golden box” of London, Bristol, Birmingham and Cambridge, the future doesn’t look bright.

In Kent, the high-speed rail link has not brought more business to the county.

Instead, it has extended the eastern borders of the London commuter zone.

Despite all the hype and Enterprise Zone status, Discovery Park – the Pfizer site outside Sandwich – has not, as yet, pulled in major business players and I doubt if it will.

It is, quite simply, in the wrong place. I have lost count of the number of times I have shared taxis from Heathrow with Pfizer executives who have moaned about its hopeless location.

The New Year message for Kent policy makers is not to pursue pipe dreams but to wake up to the realities of a dramatically changing global economy and to start from there in developing realistic economic strategies.

I am often accused of being pessimistic – I would prefer to be described as ‘realistic’.

• Richard Scase is the author of more than 20 books, including Global Remix: the Fight for Competitive Advantage (Kogan Page). More at www.richardscase. com