Live music is unlikely to return to the form in which we remember it until a coronavirus vaccine is developed, according to a leading promoter, and that means the concert experience could be entirely different going forward.

Among the ideas having to be considered by venues and artists are the prospect of dramatically reduced capacities, the need for social distancing, and the potential of shows also being streamed online to paying viewers.

In addition, ticket prices may be hiked up in order to make the events financially viable.

Kent's live music venues are already facing an uncertain future with a number signing up to the Save Our Venues crowdfunding campaign which aims to help them get through this challenging period.

But as Boris Johnson prepares to outline the likely timetable of the relaxation of the lockdown on Sunday, music fans are being warned it may not be until 2021 that performances are up and running again in a form which gets close to resembling those we are used to.

In addition, it seems highly likely all outdoor music festivals planned for this summer will be forced to postpone.

The likes of Glastonbury at the end of June has already been shelved for 2020 while Tom Jones confirmed this week his open air show at Paddock Wood's Hop Farm in July has also had to be put back a year.

The Black Deer Festival, near Tunbridge Wells, has also been postponed.

Anna Moulson is the driving force behind celebrated live music promotion company Melting Vinyl.

Famed for staging the first regional tours of the likes of the White Stripes and The Strokes, she has worked closely in recent years with venues such as Revelation St Mary's in Ashford, Folkestone's Quarterhouse and Canterbury's Gulbenkian, advising and programming concerts.

Having had to postpone a string of shows she was promoting across Kent and Sussex planned for the coming months, she's acutely aware of the impact it has had on the industry.

She explains: "Live music is one of the main industries where the coronavirus is going to have a long-lasting effect. While other people may be able to find a sense of a new normal, it's probably going to take us until 2022 to get back upon our feet.

"We're at the mercy of finding a cure or whether people are immune after they've had it. But, realistically, I don't think people will get going until 2021."

She says it is hoped venues may be able to open their doors in September - but that the experience of attending a performance could be very different.

The main problem is the continuation of the social distancing measures we have all become so familiar with which will see small venues have to dramatically reduce their capacities and ensuring audience members keep their distance.

And, once again, it could be technology, which has already transformed the way we consume recorded music, step up to play a significant role - and allow acts to continue touring.

She explains: "Ticketing companies like Dice have now set up the opportunity to do streaming services and sell tickets and I believe other ticket agencies will follow.

"We've spent years and years developing audiences. I've been working in Kent for 10 years now trying to develop international quality touring artists. We have to keep the momentum up while respecting people's health and the government's legislation.

"But venues could stage a show and get in a professional team to film it and stream it. An audience could be present, although in a reduced capacity.

"In America, they are piloting a scheme where those able to watch online is restricted to a certain geographical area because otherwise an artist could just do one show and everyone could watch.

"But to have the artist in your local venue, with which you have a personal association, I think people will tune in when it's that night of the tour. I believe the artists will go to these venues.

"Of course it may be that it's all streamed because the government has said streaming could happen in venues as long as safety precautions were put in place."

She admits it will be a far cry from the heaving mass of bodies venues and gig-goers have become accustomed to joining at popular concerts.

"We can't replace the experiential aspects of live music," she admits, "and that's why it's so popular.

"It's about seeing your friends and gathering in a group and enjoying a shared experience and that can't be duplicated.

"But I do feel I find when I see something streamed I do concentrate, and if it's done really well there may be some aspect where you feel you are part of something.

"It's not like being there but being there is going to be very different as well.

"If it's seated you'll have seats between you which will have to get kept empty. You won't be able to be in a big crowd all jostling around to the music."

To provide an example of the impact on the size of audiences, Folkestone's popular Quarterhouse venue has a seating capacity of just over 200. To keep with social distancing guidelines, the capacity would need to be reduced to between 60-70.

In addition, all venues need to be alert to the size of access routes into the auditorium, and the size of the main standing or seating area, to ensure the two-metre restrictions can continue.

Unsurprisingly, the key stumbling block will be making a live show in the 'new normal' pay its way.

Staging live music is no cheap business. From paying artists and venues to stage crews, ticketing teams and security, everyone on the regional circuit has got used to working within tight margins. Reduced audiences also means reduced bar bills - so vital to tipping many venues into profit.

Adds Anna: "Financially, unless venues get support from the government, it's just not possible to open venues, not possibly for promoters like myself, who hire the venue and pay for the artist, to be able to make it financially worthwhile."

The evolution of the music industry over recent years has seen the shift from performers being able to make their fortunes with recorded products to touring. Streaming services now dominate over sales of CDs and digital downloads. But they pay low. As an example, in 2019, 1,000 people listening to one song on Spotify nets the artist around just £3.50. Compare that with 1,000 people paying £40 for a ticket, plus merchandise sales, every night on a 20-date UK tour and the benefits are obvious.

For promoters such as Melting Vinyl, booking venues with slashed capacities means less money to play with - and less money to pay the acts they are trying to book.

"I'm not sure the artists realise they may have to look at reduced payments if they're playing to smaller capacity crowds," she explains.

"I'm putting offers in to book acts and agents are now beginning to realise we're going to have less people coming out because people's confidence will have gone and we'll need to rebuild it.

"In the last economic crash, I lost half of my audience and I think the same is going to happen. "They will have a shock and I think that's coming."

Add to that, the lasting legacy of the pandemic will be on the jobs market - in other words concert-goers - with unemployment rates likely to soar and many firms having to trim budgets to plug the hole left by the lockdown.

"People are going to have tighten their belts. People won't be buying so many tickets," warns the promoter.

However, she warns with reduced capacities making tickets even more difficult to come by for the most popular artists, tickets prices for many shows may have to escalate to fill the financial void.

An immediate victim seems destined to be the remaining festivals planned for 2020 with all the indicators suggesting mass gatherings will continue to be prohibited for months to come - or a vaccine arrives on the market.

But there is one bright spot as a result of our changing attitudes.

"We had a concert in Brighton at a church not long before the lockdown was implemented," she recalls, "and we look after the church when the events are happening, so we organise the staff and so on, and make sure the facilities are all there.

"Normally we never have to replace the soap in the men's toilets - but that night we ran out of soap a few times so I think people are going to be a lot more conscious of hygiene."

And for anyone who has been into the gents at a small venue, few would disagree that could be a change long overdue.

Melting Vinyl, as an independent music promoter, has launched a crowdfunding campaign in order to ensure it can survive during these difficult times. To support grassroots live music and its efforts to enhance the live music offering in Kent, donate by clicking here.

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