It was written off as a joke and a political party that would implode – but it has defied those predictions and, if polls are to be believed, has growing support.

KentOnline’s political editor Paul Francis spoke to the leader of the Reform Party, Richard Tice, about its electoral prospects in Kent – and whether Nigel Farage could stand for election for the eighth time…

Opinion polls have a decidedly mixed reputation when it comes to the standing of political parties, but they can indicate which way the wind is blowing among voters.

For the Reform Party, recent polls have made for encouraging reading for its supporters and concerning findings for its bigger rivals.

Born out of the ashes of Ukip, it is establishing itself as more than just a mild irritant and in some Conservative-held seats is nudging up into third place – including most constituencies in Kent.

Richard Tice, the multi-millionaire who has led the party since 2019, says members feel vindicated and are buoyed by the growing support.

He told KentOnline: “People laughed at us a few years ago when we rebranded from the Brexit Party, saying we were wasting our time. Well, they are not laughing now.”

Kent, says Tice, will be a critical battleground when the election comes, not least because of Brexit.

“Many constituencies, particularly in north Kent, were big Brexit areas,” he said.

“Many people know we are the only people who will do Brexit properly.”

A YouGov poll last week indicated that support for Reform was particularly strong in parts of Kent.

In Sittingbourne and Sheppey, it was 15%, well ahead of the Lib Dems and Green Party.

Reform is also predicted to come third in Ashford, Chatham and Aylesford, Dartford, Dover and Deal, Gillingham and Rainham, Gravesham, Herne Bay and Sandwich, Rochester and Strood, Sevenoaks, and Sittingbourne and Sheppey.

It is currently joint third in Folkestone and Hythe with the Lib Dems and similarly tied with the Greens in Maidstone and Malling.

(Demonstrating how the electoral map has been turned on its head over the past few years, the safest seat in Kent is now Canterbury, with Labour’s Rosie Duffield predicted to get almost half the vote – but that’s another story.)

Reform has selected candidates in all but two constituencies, arguably ones where they could do well – Dover and Deal and the new seat of East Thanet.

It is worth pointing out that in most of these constituencies, YouGov predicts the Conservatives would retain the seat – but not all.

“Our policies are the ones that will save Britain...”

Is Tice worried that Reform could gift seats to Labour by siphoning away disaffected Tory supporters?

“The reality is that there is no difference between the two main parties,” he told KentOnline.

“They are both [advocating] forms of socialism – very high taxes, records of very high public spending.

“They both stand for mass immigration, which depresses British wages and puts unsustainable pressure on housing and public services.

“Our policies are the ones that will save Britain.”

On immigration, he said the Tories “have lied to us”.

“They had said they would reduce immigration in election after election and deliberately created after Brexit an open borders policy that allowed a city the size of Birmingham to arrive in one year,” he said.

Net migration to the UK in the year to December 2022 was 745,000, while the population of Birmingham is 1.1 million.

Mr Tice added: “All we have to do is freeze non-essential immigration and allow the country to catch up with itself, which is what British people would like.”

Reform backed a policy of “smart immigration”, allowing people to arrive to fill gaps where there were genuine skills shortages, up to the same number of people who left the UK each year.

On the numbers continuing to cross the Channel in small boats, Mr Tice said the solution was to have a “pushback” policy which the UK was entitled to do under two international treaties.

A version of this was tried by the government but abandoned in the face of a legal challenge.

He is leaving the door open for Nigel Farage to become involved with Reform, including as a potential candidate.

“I have made it very clear that the more help Nigel can give in making people aware of our policies to help save Britain, the better,” Mr Tice said.

“We are approaching a serious crisis. We have low economic growth and we have a huge deficit.

“If we don’t change course both financially and culturally, we are heading for the rocks, so the more Nigel can give the better.

“Along with Boris [Johnson] he is probably the best-known politician in the UK.”

He says Mr Farage’s appearance on ‘I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here’, in which he was among the last three in the jungle, confounded those who said he was a ‘Marmite’ politician.

“I can absolutely guarantee that he is giving it [standing for election] very considerable thought,” said Mr Tice.

“It is not his Plan A. He thought he had got Brexit over the line and handed the Tories a big 80-seat majority when we stood down in 2019 – and they have blown it.”

When asked by KentOnline this week whether he would stand again, Mr Farage – who has been heavily linked with the Clacton seat in Essex – said he has not yet made his mind up.

"I am fully behind Richard and what he's doing, but as to what role I might play, I am very much undecided,” he said.

“Life is pretty good – I'm enjoying doing GB news. I had fun in the jungle and I am still fighting the banks. So I have got a lot on my plate.”

Mr Farage, who recently snapped up a property on the Kent coast, added: “Last year was great for me, so I am perfectly happy.

“Do I want to throw myself back Into frontline politics? That is a big decision and I am wholly undecided.”

While Mr Tice remains hopeful that Mr Farage will stand again, he insists Reform is not a “one election cycle project”.

“In the world of politics you have got to be optimistic,” he said.

Of course the party, whose ‘Let’s Make Britain Great’ slogan has echoes of Donald Trump, has only a very slim chance of securing seats in Parliament at the election – but that is not exactly how it will measure success.

There may be few things on which Reform and the Lib Dems agree but both want electoral reform and a switch to some form of proportional representation.

For Tice, it is a question of fairness, arguing that a system which garners one party three million votes but has no MPs is flawed.

“I am not saying that it is easy. First-past-the-post is a terrible electoral system. The only other country I know of which has it is Belarus.”

He says the creation of Reform has now been vindicated.

“People laughed at us and asked us what we were doing, saying it was a waste of time,” he said.

As to the Conservatives, he is withering about their performance, saying they had messed up and betrayed the country and needed to be ousted and punished for what they had done.

“Basically we have got to replace the Conservatives… and get people with real Conservative values in,” he said.

To Tice, that means a policy ending gender ‘rights’, saying that it was poisoning primary and secondary schools.

“We are very clear that this gender questioning and social transitioning – swapping our pronouns on different days of the week – frankly, is dangerous for children and causes anxiety and confuses them,” he said.

“It is a clear breach of safeguarding and we would ban all of it.”

It is the kind of uncompromising tone and plain-speaking approach that Reform hopes appeals to those who feel politically disconnected and disengaged, much as Ukip did.

The question now is whether this populist style can bring rewards and on that, no one is quite sure.

Tice certainly thinks it will. In some of the closest battlefields, the scramble for votes could make the difference between winning and losing.

Will the Garden of England be fertile ground for the party? It could be.

One practical advantage it has is many members joining it from Ukip and its successor, the Brexit Party. It is not a complete political newcomer when it comes to elections.

The uncertainty of other parties about how to tackle the challenge of Reform is perhaps an acknowledgement that traditional three-party politics is no longer the ground on which elections are won – and lost.