Kent general election: Keir Starmer facing different political landscape in Kent if exit polls accurate
23:12, 04 July 2024
When he stood outside Downing Street on May 22 to announce he was calling a snap election, Rishi Sunak said he was “prepared to take bold action for our country to flourish”.
As the rain poured down and his suit became soaked, he said the Conservative party was the only party that could weather the political storm and warned Labour would ruin the progress he had made.
The mantra that he “had a plan” and Labour did not was uttered incessantly.
On the always divisive issue of housing development and the lack of affordable homes for young families, he vowed not to sacrifice the Garden of England; targets for housebuilding would become advisory rather than compulsory; on pollution in rivers and at beaches he pledged to get tough with water companies.
But he said next to nothing about the impact of new exit and entry arrangements for non-EU travellers on Kent’s creaking road network.
There would be more money for potholes, but not enough given the huge backlog.
It was a manifesto that promised much and the snap poll was certainly a bold move - no one, including seasoned political commentators - had seen it coming, which was just as well as neither had many in his party.
But instead of leading his party to victory, he has led them to the point of political oblivion, triggering a meltdown that has exposed the party to potentially lasting political damage.
It was, it seemed, the last throw of the dice and against a backdrop of unease over the timing of the election, things began to unravel.
His pledge to tackle the ongoing problem of Channel crossings struck many as a vague aspiration, with a vow to continue a crackdown on the smugglers as an assertion, a statement of intent he had already made, lacking substance.
He had not been helped by the dramatic refection of the then Conservative MP for Dover, Natalie Elphicke, who derided his record in office and said he had failed to do what he said he would.
But it was the return of Nigel Farage to the political frontline that caused the PM a multitude of problems he seemed unable to address.
Instead of swatting him aside, Sunak let him onto the same turf, and cracks in the party about the direction he was taking them in led to a growing despair among those who supported him.
Farage, the ultimate Marmite politician, was soon bossing the debate and leading where Rishi Sunak followed.
In the inevitable political post-mortem, the Conservatives will have to dissect why it failed to stop party supporters from leaching over to the Reform UK Party.
Nigel Farage’s u-turn on standing for election rather than keeping out of the race was a pivotal moment in the campaign.
He galvanised supporters with his characteristic plain-speaking and promised that he was in it for the long haul - something he had never pledged before.
Reform UK will have taken chunks out of the Conservative vote, but will also have picked off support from the other parties.
If the party performs as badly as the exit polls suggest they will, it could lead to a split, with the ‘One Nation’ left-of-centre group of MPs taking on those who want to see more movement to the right.
Farage himself has hinted at some kind of merger between Reform UK Party and the Conservatives. Whether that happens or not, it is his declaration that he is in it for the long term that may concern some.
His eighth attempt at becoming an MP may succeed, which would enhance his political clout, but either way, his adversaries will be deeply uncomfortable at the prospect of him remaining centre-stage.
The danger for the Conservatives is that their habit of falling into an internal debate and recriminations will return at a time when the economic recovery remains fragile and the cost-of-living crisis is leaving many unable to pay bills.
That, of course, may well be Labour’s challenge too if it forms the next government.
It is now nearly three decades since Labour stormed to power under Tony Blair, who greeted his victory in 1997 with the declaration that “a new dawn has broken…isn’t it wonderful?”
If Labour wins, and it looks certain they will, Sir Keir Starmer faces an altogether different political landscape as the tectonic plates move.
Throughout the six-week long campaign, the opinion polls have rarely moved and the gap between Labour and the Conservative party has remained.
Kent may take on a different political hue but its problems won’t all be solved by changing the team colours.
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