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Prices rising from April low as demand outstrips supply

11:41, 24 December 2009

updated: 11:41, 24 December 2009

Snodland
Snodland

The average homeowner has seen the value of their home rise by more than £13,000 since the housing market hit the bottom in April, says a survey from the country’s biggest lender.

Halifax says prices rose by a further 1.4 per cent in November – the fifth successive monthly increase, marking a total jump of 8.5 per cent since the spring.

Since then the average house price of £154,490 has jumped to £167,664, which must have got many out of negative equity and encouraged others to join the Christmas spending spree.

Nationwide’s latest analysis put the average house price at £162,764, up 0.5 per cent in November.

Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis explained that higher demand has combined with a low level of properties available for sale to push up prices.

“Increased demand is largely due to the improvement in the affordability for existing homeowners and first-time buyers who can raise the necessary deposit,” he said.

Halifax disputes the view that 2010 will bring the second stage of a ‘double dip’ in house prices.

“Prospects for the market depend on how the UK economy evolves and whether there is a significant increase in the supply of properties for sale,” said Martin.

“Overall, our view is that house prices will be flat during 2010.”

Others are less confident about prospects for the next 18 months.

James Hyman at Cluttons believes that Halifax’s figures suggest sellers are still in the driving seat, as the stock of property for sale remains extremely limited, forcing prices upwards.

“I expect to see this change rapidly in the New Year as people who held off selling over the past year or so are encouraged to come to market by rising prices, which could bring about a second dip in property values,” he said.

However, Henry Pryor at Housing Expert believes Halifax’s figures are “significant”.

“They also show that the house prices to earnings ratio, which peaked at 5.82 in April 2007, crept back upwards in 2009,” he said.

“In December 2008, it was 4.55, and today it is 4.68. The long-term average, since 1983, is 4.1. Partly for that reason, I suspect house prices are still too high.

“Next year, lenders are unlikely to reduce the high percentage deposits which buyers currently need, for fear of being accused of stoking up fresh trouble.

“But after the general election, the new government – of whatever colour – will acknowledge the mess it has inherited. It will need to make drastic cuts to public expenditure to reduce borrowings running at very high levels.

“Rising public-sector redundancies will force more people to sell, and prices could fall 10 per cent in 2010 – on top of the 15 per cent fall so far.”

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