If you thought the cost of living crisis couldn't get much worse - brace yourself for an almost inevitable sharp increase in the price of your fish and chip supper.

It comes as chippies around the county say there is a very real risk to their futures as a result of soaring costs for their key ingredients.

And they warn survival will force them to up their prices with industry chiefs saying we need to change our preconceptions of the iconic British dish as a "cheap meal".

A perfect storm of issues has resulted in white fish - such as perennial favourites cod and haddock - being in short supply as well as the rocketing cost of cooking oil.

"There no doubt that many fish and chip shops are going to have to close," warns George Panteli, the boss of the family-run Marino's Fish Bar in Wincheap, Canterbury.

He explains: "The industry is being rocked to the core with unprecedented increases in commodities that are direct products and necessities for us.

"Fish, not only cod and haddock but also plaice and dogfish are scarce in supply and demand is dictating a higher price."

According to the National Federation of Fish Friers (NFFF), it fears as many as a third of all 10,500 chippies across the nation could go to the wall as a result of the crisis gripping the industry - potentially depriving Kent of some of its favourite eateries.

The key problem is that while profit margins are notoriously slim for fish and chips, the sheer scale of the amount sold allows the outlets to make money. But with prices rising and our disposable income shrinking, they face what has been termed the biggest threat in the industry's history.

Explains the NFFF's president, Andrew Crook: "It's definitely a crisis and it's the worst I've ever seen it.

"I'm getting phone calls daily from shops who think they're going under and don't know where to turn. They're looking for hope but there isn't a lot of hope out there for them.

"I've got a fish and chip shop as well and I'm feeling the pain - losing money in my own shop. It's a worrying time.

"We think around 3,000 shops will go in the next five years."

The reason is primarily due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia supplied around 40% of the UK's cod and haddock but many buyers have turned their back on the fish fearing the government's introduction of heavy tariffs.

Whitehall had announced plans to impose a 35% tariff on all Russian white fish imports but was deterred after industries reliant on the produce called on a rethink. However, it has put huge pressure on the market and, with increased demand for other sources, so the market has driven the prices up. Prices for cod, for example, have doubled this year and are expected to keep climbing.

In addition, the UK relied heavily on sunflower oil coming from both Russia and Ukraine. With many supermarkets already imposing limits on customer purchases, fish and chip shops have sought alternatives and, as with the white fish, it has seen prices across the board rocket.

To add to the mix, Russia was a big supplier of fertilisers used for potato production, while the energy and fuel price increases have added to costs both in the supply chain and in the outlets themselves.

Factor in the hike in VAT in April back up to 20% for hot takeaway food - it had been lowered to 12.5% during the pandemic to help the hospitality industry - an increase to the minimum wage and challenges of recruiting staff, and many fish and chip outlets are finding their bottom line being battered.

Adds George Panteli: "We use high quality refined rapeseed oil and due to the shortage of sunflower oil, demand for this has risen due to its availability and this has pushed the price almost double since Christmas.

"Couple this with gas and electricity increases, along with a shortage of staff prepared to do our traditionally preparation and cleaning jobs and it adds to the pressure."

Gary Lewis is president of the National Edible Oil Distributors Association (NEODA) - which this year is championing National Fish and Chip Day; taking place on Friday, May 27.

He explains: "Rape seed oil has gone up by 70% over the last year and other oils have all gone up too by between 30-70% so it's quite significant.

"Ukraine is the number one producer of sunflower oil and Russia is number two so you're taking 60% of the market out. And we've had some crop problems around the world over the last few years due to the weather."

And the squeeze on costs is being felt by all in the trade - albeit in varying degrees.

Peter's Fish Factory in Margate said it had seen the price of many of its key ingredients rising - something which they were, like others, having to pass on to the consumer - and that while the fish it used, sourced in Norway, was available, it came at increased cost.

Adds the boss of Marino's Fish Bar: "Whilst we are fortunate enough to still maintain a healthy trade we are duly concerned for the next 12-24 months. This is our 40th year as a family run independent business and we hope to be around for another 40.

"Fish and chips can no longer be regarded as a cheap meal. It should never have been. The time and effort taken to prepare a high quality freshly produced and cooked product should no longer be undervalued."

"Fish and chips can no longer be regarded as a cheap meal. It should never have been..."

It's a view supported by the National Federation of Fish Friers. Explains president Andrew Crook: "You look at the price of fish in the supermarket and it's the same as steak - in fact it may even be more expensive.

"We need to change attitudes.

"Because the industry has this 160 year heritage, people have a preconception of fish and chips, how big it should be, how much it should be and I think the industry has changed and running a business has changed.

"The reality is that the price of cod has almost doubled, but we haven't doubled our prices. But they are going to have to rise."

And that means the average entry price for the classic cod and chips could break the £10 barrier - if it hasn't already.

Adds George Panteli from Marino's Fish Bar: "It's not only fish - potatoes, sausages, pies, chicken and salad prices have all increased substantially and in order to stay in business we must increase prices according to the market.

"Most customers are understanding of this and still support us but we are seeing more customers change their orders to the burgers, chicken, sausage, souvlaki, kebab and wrap products that we offer. There is a definite shift away from fish."

Adds Gary Lewis of NEODA: "There's a reluctance to pass the price on, but it's unavoidable. "The trade has got to be more positive when it comes to that.

"There's plenty of things it can do to control that in terms of portion control, as I think some are over generous in sizes. Maybe filter the oil used more to extend its life.

"After all, why pay £15 for a pizza which has very basic ingredients when you're getting a good quality meal with fish and chips?

"There's a reluctance to pass the price on, but it's unavoidable..."

"The public know about prices going up and the market has now moved away from shortages to price increases.

"But on National Fish and Chip Day it's a chance to celebrate the industry and enjoy the value it brings. These places helped us through the Covid lockdowns and we need to support them."