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Opinion: Drop in asylum seeker numbers appears to show Conservatives’ tough stance on small boats crisis is working, says Paul Francis

12:24, 02 January 2024

The political significance of the drop in the number of small boats crossing the Channel cannot be emphasised enough.

For the Conservatives, it provides evidence that its determination to crack down on the people smuggling gangs is working - up to a point.

Paul Francis gives his view on the latest in politics
Paul Francis gives his view on the latest in politics

In 2022, 45,755 people made the crossing - the highest number since figures began to be collected in 2018.

Compare that with the 29,090 people who had crossed the English Channel in 2023 and you can understand why the Conservatives are - if not celebrating, exactly - nonetheless relieved.

Asylum and illegal immigration remain a touchstone issue for the Conservatives; the inability to get a hold on it and curb the numbers has been vexing the party for some time.

With a general election approaching, it desperately needed some evidence that its hard-line commitment to radically reducing the numbers was achieving results.

Of course, you could always argue that it is a modest decrease but the symbolism is critical; for the first time in years, the Conservatives can point to something that backs up its claim that it is the party that will ‘act tough’.

Labour arguably has a more difficult challenge and that is to convince the electorate it is the party that will spare nothing in its efforts to constrain the numbers.

Asylum seekers landing on a beach in Kent. Library image.
Asylum seekers landing on a beach in Kent. Library image.

Under Keir Starmer, it has charted a fairly neutral position - falling back on that old mantra that it would not draw up policy on the hoof.

There are also painful memories of Labour leader Gordon Brown’s ‘bigoted woman’ comments recorded when he thought he was ‘off mic’ in the 2010 election campaign. More than a decade on, it remains a cautionary episode.

Labour has stressed it would work more closely with Europe on asylum seekers.

It may find voters want something more red-blooded when they go to the polls.

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