The Conservatives have been firmly at the helm in the Tonbridge and Malling constituency since its boundaries were drawn up in 1974.

In fact only two people have sat in Parliament representing the area in the last 50 years: Sir John Stanley (1974-2015) and Tom Tugendhat (2015 onwards).

The latter, a Home Office minister in charge of security, is so respected within the party that when it came to choosing a successor to Boris Johnson, he was supported in a bid to be the party’s new leader, only to be eliminated in the third round of voting.

Closer to home, in the last election in 2019, the former Army intelligence officer received more than 64.2% of the votes and took the seat with the biggest-ever majority - 26,941.

His closest challenger was from Labour, which secured just 14.5% of the ballot. The Lib Dems came a close third, with 13.6% of the poll.

In fact, the Conservatives have never walked away with less than 45% of the vote, usually more, in the last half-century.

The area is a Tory-stronghold at a borough council level too, with 20 of the 44 available seats going to the party in 2023. The second most dominant force there is the Lib Dems, which have 11 councillors.

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But looking to the past may not help, as in the forthcoming general election the constituency boundaries have changed.

Malling, including the likes of affluent Kings Hill and West Malling, has merged with Maidstone to form a new patch. Meanwhile, Tonbridge will take on new areas, including Ash, New Ash Green, Hartley and Hodsoll Street.

With this change, coupled with national sentiment towards the ruling party, the most recent estimates are for a drop-off in Tory votes.

So while pollsters predict Tonbridge is likely to remain a blue seat, that huge majority of Mr Tugendhat’s is expected to be significantly eroded this time around, with Reform UK gaining popularity and swaying right-wing voters and Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour picking up momentum on the left.

The issues the candidates are likely to be talking about on doorsteps include widely-held worries about the cost-of-living crisis, access to GPs and the number of homes being built.

The latter is a particular problem for Tonbridge, which is without a Local Plan since a government inspector rejected its proposals in 2021. The council’s Tory leader believes the government will have to revise its eye-watering target of finding room for 16,000 more in the coming 15 years or so.

And while the area is relatively affluent with high wages, housing too is pricey, with affordable options in short supply.

Another challenge faced by Tonbridge is flooding, with sandbags a familiar sight outside houses and shops. Flood stage facilities like the one near Leigh on the River Medway have been built to reduce their impact but it is still an ongoing concern.

And then there’s the health of the high street - a hot topic in the area since parking charges were introduced on Sundays and Bank Holidays, extended into the evenings, and generally increased in price. Traders say this could be critical to their businesses, as they already battle to compete with the explosion of online shopping and lure of out-of-town centres.

It is yet to be seen how these local issues will affect the result of the poll on July 4.

The candidates

Awaiting details

Tim Shaw, Independent Alliance (Kent)

The full list of candidates:

Tom Tugendhat, Conservative

Lewis Bailey, Labour

John Woollcombe, Liberal Democrats

Anna Cope, Green Party

Ian Grattidge, Social Democratic Party

Teresa Hansford, Reform UK

Tim Shaw, Independent Alliance